Vibecession: When Sentiment Defies the Stats
Despite solid economic indicators, American consumer and small business confidence is in sharp decline—reviving the term “Vibecession” to describe today’s uneasy economic mood.

The recent rise in American optimism following the election, noting increased confidence across various demographics. Despite this positive sentiment, they advise investors to remain cautious, highlighting that while the U.S. economy shows resilience with strong productivity growth and anticipated earnings increases, it’s essential to avoid complacency in investment decisions.

Card experts have warned that a winning hand can often lead to overconfidence and complacency, causing players to take unnecessary risks and become careless. Those missteps arising from sloppy play can lead to trouble when playing future hands.

Card experts have warned that a winning hand can often lead to overconfidence and complacency, causing players to take unnecessary risks and become careless. Those missteps arising from sloppy play can lead to trouble when playing future hands.

During the five-month period from November to March, the S&P rose 24%, reflecting confidence that inflation was finally on the decline, prices could get under control, and interest rates would be reduced.

The stock market is hitting new all-time highs on the expectation of rate cuts in 2024, yet reflationary factors may be emerging that could push back the timing of loosening monetary policy.

In 2014, just before leaving the Federal Reserve, Chairman Ben Bernanke responded to a question about how confident he was in the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing.

“Hell on Two Wheels, Until the E-Bike’s Battery Runs Out.”
In just the last few years, many local communities are coping with a uniquely 21st century moral hazard created by the pandemic: youth on e-bikes.